Common Rationalizations: Risk

My latest post, Monetary Impact,  has generated a lot of buzz.  Many of the comments have been related to my calculations, which I admit could have been better.  I left out a few expenses here and there and I also failed to account for retained value of the SUV initially (see post-script of that post for recalculation if you have not seen it yet).  There also is some concern about an SUV being an inappropriate comparison, which is a valid concern.  Regardless of these problems with my post, the daily savings for my proposed SUV is somewhere between $30-55.  Also, the savings for a reasonable commuter car is more than 10 dollars per commute!  This, for most people, is savings worth pursuing.

Unfortunately, I have also  received some feedback that can be summarized as, “I recognize the savings from riding a bike but I just cannot fit bicycle commuting into my current lifestyle.” The most common lifestyle complication is having children; I completely get that!  I foresee this as being a major complication in the future of my bicycle commute, which I intend to write about extensively once my wife and I cross that path.  Here is how one person has adapted her biking to having a family.

I would be fine with the kid rationalization; however, once I talk about some of my proposed solutions to bicycle commuting while having kids, the conversation inevitably turns toward safety.  Almost everyone says,

“There is just no safe way for me to get to work from my house! It would be just too Risky!”

This is an excuse I simply cannot recognize as valid.  First of all, there are literally no two points in the United States that you cannot find at least one safe route to ride a bicycle using low traffic side streets, sidewalks (not preferred), and trails.  It is possible that the safest path may be longer than your car commute but that will give you more time to soak in all of the benefits of being outdoors, additional OEDE, and more time to Set Your Mind Free.

The idea that bicycle commuting is “risky” is pervasive in US American culture.  Thus, this is the perfect opportunity for me to address the idea of RISK as I see it.

We are often led to believe in our decision making that taking Option A has Risk X and Option B has Risk Y.  If Risk X is greater than Risk Y, one should avoid Option A in favor of Option B.

This seems completely rational, but unfortunately our minds are biased to only perceive risk of harm in this calculation, while almost always failing to calculate the risk of lost benefit if you are giving up Option A benefit by pursuing Option B.

Below is my favorite illustration of how silly this bias is (that I made up while riding to work the other day).

Let us assume that you really like the flavor of steak and that the most robust steak flavor is achieved when cooked at medium rare.  We will also assume that the steak was purchased from a butcher without health code violations and that the chance of the steak initiating an infection is 21 in 100 million if cooked to your ideal medium rare temperature.

Almost any reasonable person would accept this risk of food poisoning… But what if you found a website that told you that you could cut your risk of food poisoning over 2-fold to 9 in 100 million by cooking the steak into a disgusting charred biscuit.

If you looked at this situation purely from the perspective of avoiding the risk of infection, you would opt for the burnt steak. However, I believe most people would not want to destroy the steak in pursuit of a small absolute risk reduction (12 times in 100 million steaks would you avoid food poisoning – 21 minus 9).  Burning the steak, by the way, would result in no enjoyment!

This just happens to be the choice folks are making when they opt to drive instead of bike because of improved “safety” of a car over a bicycle.  It is absolutely true that one of the most thorough studies on this subject  demonstrates that for every 100 million bike trips there are 21 fatalities, whereas for the same number of car trips there are 9 fatalities.  It is certainly true that this means that you are over twice as likely to die in a bicycle trip as in a car trip.

“Did you read that?! Business Casual Biker admitted that biking is TWICE as deadly as car-driving!”

It is 100% the truth.  However, in order to realize this increased chance of death, one would need to take 8.3 million bicycle trips instead of a car.  This is obviously more bicycle trips than any one human will ever undertake in his or her life no matter how much of bicycle badass one is.  This means that your increased risk of dying while riding to work over the course of your lifetime is essentially zero.

What is more, if you are using this “supposed” risk as a rationalization for why you are not living a Business Casual Biker life style (with all of the benefits being outlined in this blog), you are getting a raw deal!  Are you eating a charred steak every day because your worried about  how scary it is to ride a bike?

 

Monetary Impact

The astute reader of my blog may note that my impetus to start biking to work was financial, yet we are now a little over a month into this blog adventure and I have not directly addressed the issue of money and biking.

This is a purposeful move on my part, because I do not wish to insinuate that my continued use of a bicycle as my primary transportation is in any way financially motivated.  I did start out my career with very little money to the point that it necessitated my daily bike commute.  However, at this point there is definitely room in Mr. and Mrs. BCBiker monthly cash flow to afford a commuter car for me.  I, nonetheless, continue to pedal my way to and from work every day without fail. My motivation is now completely existential. (To see what motivates me to bicycle commute, please see the rest of this blog.) Please note that these existential factors are so overwhelming that even if we lived in some alternate universe where bicycle commuting was more expensive that car commuting, I would  continue my pedaling ways.

So despite the non-monetary benefits of Business Casual Biking being incalculably high, it is important to let those of us who have not experienced these benefits to  see the monetary gains to be enjoyed by simply changing one part of your day.  Perhaps this money-based calculation will motivate you to start your own bicycle commute so that you can then rake in all of the existential benefits!

Be prepared to be amazed!

Most people pay more attention to their favorite team’s box scores or to celebrity gossip than they do to their monthly budget, so it is the rare bird that actually realizes that their car (whether spectacular or not) is a tremendous source of cash hemorrhage!

Table 1  – 2014 Bicycle Commuting Expense Sheet

Date Amount Purpose
6/12/2014 $155.47 Tubes and Tires
6/12/2014 $2.50 Bus Fare
8/9/2014 $26.00 Spoke replacement and wheel repair
Yearly Total $183.97
Monthly Total $15.33

To summarize, I spent a grand total of $183.97 in 2014 on getting to work. This total includes a catastrophic event in which I had worn all the way through the tread of my rear wheel such that the tube blebbed out and punctured.  I purchased front and rear tires even though my front tire was still good so I have yet to put that on.   The tires I purchased were also very fancy Hardshell Continentals.  I was in a little bit of a hurry so I splurged on a 4 mile bus ride when my tube punctured.  The spoke replacement was done because I could not find the tool needed for the repair, and the shop I took it to was new and relatively expensive.  I thought about taking it somewhere less expensive but wanted to support the place because it is located near our house.

Now let us compare this amount to a standard car commute in Denver.  I will make some assumptions.  I am assuming the only purpose of this car is for commuting.  I will assume I purchased a 2011 Toyota 4Runner (SUVs are the predominant commuter car in Denver) priced at $28,000 with an average fuel economy of 19 miles per gallon.   If I did car commute I would need to purchase this car from scratch so I will say I borrowed money for this car with a small down payment ($2000).  Let’s make the terms of the loan a 4 year payoff with a 3% interest rate. I also will assume that I take the fastest way to work which is a 17 mile each way freeway commute (which is slightly further than my bicycle commute – 14 miles each way) 260 days – the approximate number of day I worked last year. Fuel was about $3.50 on average in Denver last year. Because this truck will make me broke, I will assume a standard comprehensive insurance package with a $500 deductible.  Taxes and registration are based on estimates from the state web site.

Drum-roll Please…

Table 2 – 2011 4Runner Year One Expenses

 

Expense Category Monthly Yearly
Car payment $575.49 $6,905.88
Retained Value -$489.17 -$5,870.00
Fuel $135.00 $1,620.00
Insurance $115.50 $1,386.00
Depreciation $350.00 $4,200.00
Sales tax $221.00 $2,652.00
Registration $42.00 $504.00
Maintenance $40.00 $480.00
Total $989.82 $11,877.88

Now some may state that this is a ridiculous amount of money to spend on a car… To those people, just look at your checkbook and credit card statements and do the math.

Please note that some might consider this to be an obnoxious vehicle where as others might say what about the BMW?!

Let’s now see the difference between car and bicycle commuting (Listed as Savings)

Table 3 – Savings table

Yearly Savings $11,693.91
Monthly Savings $974.49
Per Daily Commute Savings $44.98

That is right, every day I ride to work I am saving $44.98 compared to what I would pay to drive a 3-year-old SUV!  The scenario may seem hyperbolic but I guarantee that you can find any number of co-workers who are shelling out at least this much money for their comfort wagon.  I promise to repeat this calculation with a more reasonable (and less reasonable) situation in a future post.

Comments are welcome!

 

*Depreciation is a hidden cost to motor vehicle ownership.  Cars are the prototypical depreciating asset.  A simple example is you buy a car for $30,000 new and then sell the car 1 year later for $23,000.  That is a $7000 depreciation.  That $7000 is money you will never get back so is an real expense to you.  Please note that in this example, the car is 3 years old so the depreciation is less than if it was a new car.  I calculated the depreciation based on the car costing $42,000 when new in 2011.  I could have depreciated my bicycle in the analysis but the bike and my spare bike were free. Stay tuned for my future post on getting started in biking for low and no money!

Post script:  Some commenters have noted, the first year costs are much higher than in future years so year-two will be much less savings from the bicycle commute but still significant.  My intentions in this post was to show just how much a somewhat average vehicle can cost and that a bicycle is a reasonable replacement.   Stay tuned for more good stuff on this topic in future posts!